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Global cotton production is expected to grow by 1.3% annually, primarily driven by yield improvements, reaching 29.5 Mt by 2034

07.10.2025 06:00 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Global use of raw cotton is projected to grow by 1.2% annually, driven by increasing textile demand

in middle- and low-income countries. Asia will remain the primary hub for the processing of raw cotton,

with expansion in Viet Nam, Bangladesh, and India fuelled by competitive labour and production costs.

The People’s Republic of China (hereafter «China») is expected to gradually lose its dominance in global

cotton processing but it will remain the world’s largest cotton processor by 2034, followed by India.

Global cotton production is expected to grow by 1.3% annually, primarily driven by yield improvements, reaching 29.5 Mt by 2034. Innovations in genetics and farming practices are also expected to help reduce the sector’s carbon footprint. The faster growing production result in an expected increase in cotton stocks over the Outlook period which declined over the last ten years.

India is projected to surpass China as the world’s largest cotton producer, as it is expected that India will considerably increase cotton yields from their current low levels. Brazil and the United States will follow at similar levels of production.

Global cotton trade is projected to grow steadily at 1.6% annually, reaching 12.3 Mt by 2034. While China is projected to remain the largest importer with about 3 Mt, the increase in global trade will be driven by rising imports into other Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh and Viet Nam, due to their limited domestic production capacity.

As major producers and exporters, Brazil and the United States are expected to meet the growing demand from Asian countries and will be the two largest exporters over the next decade.

International cotton prices are expected to decline slightly in real terms over the Outlook period, driven by competition from synthetic fibres and productivity gains in cotton farming.

A number of uncertainties could alter cotton market projections, altered macro-economic conditions and unforeseen shifts of consumer preferences toward sustainability, organic cotton, recycling and second-hand clothing. On the supply side, projections are subject to yield uncertainty related to systematic changes in growing conditions due to weather shifts, water availability, or pest infestations.

Current market trends

Global cotton production to recover sharply in 2024/25

Global cotton production in the 2024/25 (August/July) season is set to rebound after two consecutive annual declines, reaching its highest level in the past four seasons. The year-on-year increase is mainly driven by expectations of larger outputs in key producing countries. In China, generally favourable weather conditions benefitted crop yields, which are projected to recover sharply from the reduced level in 2023/24 and boost output. In Brazil and the United States, production growth is expected to result from an expansion in area, at the expense of competing crops like maize. These production gains are forecast to more than offset a likely decline in India, the world’s second largest cotton producing country, due to a shift in area to more remunerative crops, including rice and pulses. Similarly, a reduction in area is expected to drive a production decline in Pakistan, while output is set to rebound for the second consecutive season in West African countries, following the drop in 2022/23 caused by a significant Jassids infestation.

Global cotton consumption in 2024/25 is forecast to increase slightly for a second consecutive year, recovering from a large contraction in 2022/23. The year-on-year increase is mainly driven by forecasts of higher cotton use in India, Bangladesh, Türkiye, and Viet Nam, offsetting a significant decline in Pakistan driven by the decline in output. In China, the largest cotton-spinning country in the world with mill use accounting for nearly a third of global consumption, cotton demand is projected at the 2023/24 level reflecting the country’s slow economic growth which constraints domestic demand growth for textile and apparel products.

International cotton prices have generally trended downwards since the second quarter of 2024, mainly pressured by strong production prospects for the 2024/25 season. Weaker global demand for textile and apparel and high stock levels have also contributed to the decline. Although global consumption is showing signs of recovery, production is forecast to exceed consumption in the current season, weighing on prices.

Additionally, cotton continues to face stiff competition from man-made fibres (MMFs) — which are cheaper but less sustainable and derived from non-renewable resources.

World trade of raw cotton in 2024/25 is foreseen to remain close to its level in the previous season. On the supply side, Brazil is expected to surpass the United States as the world’s largest cotton exporter for the second consecutive season, with rising shipments likely to offset the continued decline in United States exports. A significant increase in exports is also forecast from West African countries, supported by expectations of a larger crop. On the demand side, the sharp drop in imports anticipated in China, the world’s largest importer, is forecast to be offset by a strong increase in purchases by Bangladesh, Viet Nam and Türkiye.

Market projections

Consumption

A moderate mill use growth is expected, mostly driven by the continued expansion of the Viet Nam and Bangladesh milling industry Cotton consumption refers to the use of cotton fibres by mills to transform it into yarn. Cotton mill-use depends largely on two major drivers: global textile demand and competition from synthetic fibres. Over the past decades, global demand for textiles fibres has increased sharply, driven mainly by population and income growth, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. However, this expanding demand has been largely supplied by chemical fibres (Figure 9.1, left panel). The versatility of synthetic fibres and their competitive prices have encouraged the textile manufacturing industry to favour synthetic over cotton fibres. From the early 1990’s, non-cotton fibres have gained solid ground in the textile industry. In 2024, the end-use market-share reached 77.6% for chemical fibres and only 22.4% for cotton. Likewise, per capita consumption of non-cotton fibres has strongly outpaced per capita consumption of cotton fibres and continues to increase strongly. In contrast, per capita consumption of cotton has remained stagnant over time and trended downwards in recent years.

The prospects for global cotton use rely mainly on its evolution in developing and emerging economies.

Demand from these regions with lower absolute levels of consumption but higher income responsiveness is projected to exert upward pressure on global demand for cotton as the incomes and population of these countries are projected to increase. Global mill use is projected to grow by around 1.2% p.a. over the next decade, a moderate increase due to the slowdown in global economic prospects negatively affecting the demand for textiles.

The geographical distribution of demand for cotton fibres depends on the location of spinning mills, where natural and synthetic fibres are transformed into yarn. Traditionally, the spun yarn industry has been established predominantly in Asian countries, where conditions such as lower labour costs are favourable for the industry. China has been the world’s leading cotton consumer since 1960.

Source OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2025–2034 © OECD/FAO 2025

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