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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

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Improved prospects for coarse grains put global cereal production in 2025 forecast at all-time high

13.09.2025 16:18 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2025 has been revised up by 35.6 million tonnes (1.2 percent) compared to the projection from July, driven by improved prospects for coarse grain crops. This latest revision reinforces the expectation of a record-high global cereal output in 2025, which is now anticipated at 2 961 million tonnes, 3.5 percent above the previous year’s level.

The global production forecast for coarse grains in 2025 has been lifted to 1 601 million tonnes, a sharp increase of 36.1 million tonnes compared to July, and now at 88.6 million tonnes (5.9 percent) above 2024’s level. The marked upward revision is primarily due to a sizable increase in the maize output forecast in the United States of America, reflecting record-high yields and updated area estimates. Positive revisions to maize production outlooks are also made for Brazil and Mexico, driven by, respectively, higher yields and larger planted area to the main crop. Contrastingly, maize production forecasts have been trimmed in the European Union, as dry weather and higher-than-average temperatures are expected to reduce both harvested area and yields. Global sorghum production is also revised higher this month, by 2.2 million tonnes, to 66.6 million tonnes, 5.6 percent above the previous year’s level. The revision largely stems from better yield prospects in Brazil, which put the 2025 sorghum outturn at a record level. FAO’s forecast for the world wheat output stands at 804.9 million tonnes, marginally down from the previous projection in July, but 6.9 million tonnes higher year-on-year. The downward revision is mostly due to lower yield prospects in China (mainland) on account of adverse weather conditions and a smaller-than-expected acreage in Argentina. Partly offsetting these declines, upward adjustments have been made to the wheat production forecast in the European Union, driven by weather-improved prospects for yields. As for rice, FAO has downgraded its production forecast for Nepal, reflecting lower area and yield expectations owing to unconducive rains over parts of the country. Official forecasts have also been downscaled in the United States of America, where spring floods in southern producing areas compounded on prospects of reduced producer margins. However, these revisions are largely compensated by output upgrades for various other countries, most notably Indonesia, where favourable price prospects are now seen lifting plantings to seven-year highs. As a result, world rice production remains forecast to expand by 1.0 percent in 2025/26 to a record high of 555.5 million tonnes (milled basis). Production expansions in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are anticipated to sustain the annual growth, more than compensating for contractions namely in Madagascar, Nepal, the United States of America, and Thailand.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2025/26 has been increased by 21.7 million tonnes since July, reaching 2 922 million tonnes, up 44.6 million tonnes (1.6 percent) from the 2024/25 level. Total utilization of coarse grains is forecast to rise by 1.7 percent to 1 568 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season due to increased use of maize and, to a lesser extent, sorghum. Amid plentiful supplies, use of maize for animal feed is seen rising in major producers Brazil and the United States of America while falling in Argentina. Feed use of barley in Saudi Arabia is revised upward, albeit to a level still below that of previous season. Feed use of wheat is also revised upwards this month, specifically in the European Union and in Thailand, where demand is increasing from the aquaculture sector. Global wheat utilization in 2025/26 is now forecast at a record level of 803.5 million tonnes, up 8.1 million tonnes from the 2024/25 level, with wheat expected to be increasingly incorporated into animal feed rations in China. FAO’s forecast of world rice utilization has changed little, pointing to 550.6 million tonnes being used in 2025/26, up 1.9 percent year-on-year and a record high.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2026 has been raised by 9.6 million tonnes since July, with global reserves now seen reaching 898.7 million tonnes, 3.7 percent above their opening levels and a record. This month’s upward revision is attributed to an upgrade to stocks of coarse grains, outweighing a downgrade to stocks of wheat. Among coarse grains, the bumper output in the United States of America is expected to result in significantly larger reserves of maize than previously anticipated with stocks in that country at the end of the 2025/26 season foreseen to reach a record level of over 50.0 million tonnes. Conversely, global wheat stocks are forecast lower than in July and are now expected to remain near to their opening levels after downward revisions to the Islamic Republic of Iran, where the production outlook is reduced and to the European Union, where a historical revision made to human consumption over previous seasons results in a lowering of 2025/26 ending stocks by 1.8 MMT. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is expected to reach 30.6 percent, an increase of almost one percent on the previous season, confirming the comfortable supply outlook. World rice stocks at the close of 2025/26 marketing years remain forecast to expand by 2.0 percent to a record high of 214.5 million tonnes, sustained by buildups namely in Brazil, China, India, and Thailand, which could overshadow drawdowns namely in Indonesia, Madagascar, and the United States of America.

FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 is pegged at 493.4 million tonnes, up 6.5 million tonnes from the July forecast and pointing to a 1.4 percent increase from the 2024/25 level. This month’s upward revision is due mainly to an increase in trade of coarse grains, predominantly maize. Abundant exportable supplies of maize from bumper crops in Brazil and the United States of America are expected to attract importing countries and are behind a 5.1-million-tonne upward revision to maize trade, even though China is expected to continue its reduced purchases of maize in 2025/26. Barley trade is raised only slightly since July, despite lower prices and stronger demand expected from livestock farmers in Saudi Arabia. Trade in wheat in the new season is seen rising by 4.0 percent, or 7.8 million tonnes with continued strong demand from China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan, Syrian Arab Republic and Türkiye. Among exporting countries, the major players will continue to supply markets with the European Union expected to regain market share after a reduced harvest in 2024. International trade in rice is anticipated to reach a fresh peak of 61.4 million tonnes in 2025 (January-December), up 2.9 percent year-on-year and 0.6 million tonnes more than previously reported. Bangladesh accounts for much of the import revision introduced this month, although imports were also raised namely for Ghana and Guinea-Bissau, more compensating for downward corrections for various other countries.

Agro Perspectiva

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