The geographical structure of Ukraine’s food purchases is shaped by a pronounced focus on the European Union, which accounts for more than half of the value of imports. In 2024, the European Union supplied agricultural raw materials and finished food products to our country worth USD 4.0 billion.
EU agri-food exports reached a record level of EUR 235.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 3% compared to the peak in 2022 and 2023 (+ EUR 6.6 billion). The UK and the US are the top destinations of EU exports, while exports to China and Russia decreased.
The UK remained the first destination of EU agri-food exports in 2024, representing 23% of EU exports (EUR 53.9 billion). It was the destination with the second-largest increase in EU exports (+4%, + EUR 2.2 billion) compared to 2023. EU exports to the UK are diverse and it is a key destination for many EU agri-food products. The main categories of EU exports to the UK in 2024 were: cereal preparations and milling products (12% of EU export value), preparations of fruit, nuts and vegetables (8%), dairy products (7%), pigmeat (7%), and confectionery and chocolate (7%).
The EU kept exporting a diversified basket of products, topped by exports of cereal preparations, dairy products and wine. The value of olives and olive oil, and cocoa products increased the most, due to strong price increases, while exports of cereals declined due to reduced prices and volumes.
Since 2022, Ukraine’s imports of agricultural raw materials and food products have become even more dependent on supplies from the European Union.
According to the results of 2024, Ukraine ranks 13th in the ranking of the largest food buyers in the EU.
Bogdan Dukhnytskyi (Doctor of Economic Sciences, Leading Researcher) and Volodymyr Pugachov (PhD in Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher) from National Scientific Center «Institute of Agrarian Economics» conducted an analysis of food imports and draw attention to the following fact during the 2013–2023, imports of agri-food products demonstrated many interesting statistical features.
In 2023, the European Union supplied agricultural raw materials and finished food products to our country worth USD 3,680 million, or almost 53%. Imports of food from other parts of the world were significantly lower: from Asia they amounted to USD 1,365 mil- lion (19.6%), Latin America — USD 511 million (7.4%), and Africa — USD 326 million (4.7%). Thus, these four regions accounted for almost 85% of Ukraine’s agricultural imports.
In 2013, its total value was the highest since independence, exceeding USD 8 billion. For the next two years, due to economic problems caused by the annexation of Crimea and the hostilities in Donbas, agricultural imports declined significantly (to almost USD 3.5 billion in 2015), but then grew steadily until 2021, reaching USD 7.8 billion. However, the full-scale Russian invasion led to a forced curtailment of foreign trade, which resulted in a 23% decline in food imports in 2022. However, in 202,3 the decline was overcome, replaced by an increase of USD 1 billion, so that Ukraine’s agricultural imports amounted to almost USD 7 billion, becoming the fourth largest in history.
The share of agri-food products in Ukraine’s total imports is usually within 10%. Since 2013, its highest figure was 12% in 2020, and the lowest was recorded in 2017 — 8.7%. As of now, the situation remains unchanged: in 2022, agricultural products accounted for 10% of Ukraine’s imports, and in 2023 — 11%. Another important point is the situation with the foreign agricultural trade balance, or rather, its ambiguity. The overall balance of foreign trade is positive, with exports significantly exceeding imports (by USD 14,899 million in 2023), but the result is already the opposite for most commodity subgroups.
This is explained by the high concentration of Ukraine’s agri-food exports, where grains, oilseeds, oils, processing residues, and poultry meat account for almost 90% of its value, while the remaining items are characterized by very small amounts of foreign sales. As a result, in 2023 the balance was negative in subgroups 01, 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 13, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22, 24.
In addition, the ratio of exports to imports for many traditional products for the domestic agriculture and food industry remains negative for Ukraine — live poultry, pork, lard, some vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers, onions, cabbage), fruits (grapes, pears, apricots, peaches, plums), cheeses, seed sunflower, and fruit and berry seedlings.
Poland was traditionally the main supplier of agri-food products to Ukraine in 2023, with sales worth USD 950 million. The top ten partners in agricultural imports also included: Turkey — $627 million, Germany — $534 million, Italy — $337 million, Norway — $304 million, France — $282 million, the Netherlands — $278 million, the United States — $252 million, Spain- $233 million, and China — $216 million. The overall structure of Ukraine’s external purchases of agri-food products has a significant feature: the largest volumes by value are not raw materials, but ready food products (subgroups 16–24 of UCGFEA). The year 2023 was no exception, as they accounted for about 47% of Ukraine’s agricultural imports. At the same time, oils and fats accounted for the smallest share of supplies, within 4%.
In 2023, despite the war, fruit and berry products remained the main commodity groups in our agricultural imports, with the value of purchases totalling USD 812 million, along with fish and seafood (USD 804 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (USD 719 million).
Also, significant in value terms were Ukraine’s purchases of tobacco products, various food products, oilseeds, animal feed, processing industry waste, vegetables, and cocoa products. Together, they accounted for 70% of imports of agri-food products in monetary terms.
At the same time, our importers spent the most on purchases of animal feed, frozen fish, spirits, tobacco products for direct use, citrus fruits, sunflower seeds, coffee, bananas, cheese, fresh and chilled fish.
The total volume of imported fruit and berry products in 2023 was 706 thousand tonnes, mainly including 271 thousand tonnes of various citrus fruits and 201 thousand tonnes of bananas. Smaller quantities were imported of stone fruits (46 thousand tonnes), grapes (41 thousand tonnes), watermelons and melons (30 thousand tonnes), and other exotic fruits and nuts.
In 2023, the leading suppliers of fruit to Ukraine were Turkey, Ecuador, Greece, Costa Rica, Spain, and Colombia. It is worth noting that Turkey traditionally specializes in the sale of citrus fruits, while Latin America supplies bananas. These six countries accounted for about 64% of Ukraine’s imports of fruit and berry products in monetary terms.
In 2023, purchases of fish and seafood abroad totalled almost 300 thousand tonnes (including 214 thousand tonnes of frozen fish, 37 thousand tonnes of fish fillets, 25 thousand tonnes of fresh and chilled fish, and 13 thousand tonnes of crustaceans). The largest purchases in this group were made from Norway, Iceland, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Spain, Ecuador, and Canada, with a combined share of 71%.
Imports of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages exceeded 370 thousand tonnes. It included sweet and mineral waters (138 thousand tonnes), beer (65 thousand tonnes), grape wines (62 thousand tonnes), and beverages with an alcohol content of less than 80 vol. % (92 thousand tonnes). Italy, the United Kingdom, Poland, Georgia, Germany, and France as the main suppliers had a total share of 57% in 2023.
Among other key commodity groups in imports, the authors of this study would like to mention purchases of oilseeds in the amount of over 86 thousand tonnes, where the largest volumes were sunflower seeds (30 thousand tonnes) and rapeseed (20 thousand tonnes), as well as peanuts (22 thousand tonnes). In addition, 197 thousand tonnes of animal feed were imported, which formed the absolute majority in the structure of the residues and waste group.
Since 2022, as a result of the occupation and hostilities in the south of Ukraine, in particular in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, there has been a shortage of vegetables for the domestic market, which was compensated for by imports. In 2023, there was still a high dependence on purchases of this group of products from outside Ukraine. Thus, the total imports of vegetables amounted to 338 thousand tonnes, with the main commodity items being tomatoes (95 thousand tonnes), onions and garlic (76 thousand tonnes), carrots and other root vegetables (32 thousand tonnes), cabbage (30 thousand tonnes), and cucumbers (29 thousand tonnes).
Objectively, there is no alternative to importing cocoa products, coffee, tea, and spices from abroad. In 2024, Ukraine imported 73,000 tonnes of cocoa products (mostly chocolate, cocoa paste, powder and butter), 45,000 tonnes of coffee, 12,000 tonnes of tea, and over 4,000 tonnes of black pepper. Regarding imports of agri-food products from the European Union as our key supplier, it is worth noting that its dynamics are very similar to the general trend. The continuous increase for six years (2016–2021) stopped in 2022, when the value of supplies from the countries of this regional grouping decreased by 17% to USD 3,376 million. However, 2023 again brought an increase in purchases by Ukrainian importers by $300 million, which totalled $3,680 million.
In 2023, the largest expenditures of Ukrainian importers of food products originating in the EU countries were in the groups of beverages (primarily wines, spirits, beer, sweet waters), tobacco products (mainly e-cigarette kits), residues and waste from the processing industry (in fact, in the form of animal feed), various food products (mainly extracts and concentrates of tea and coffee, sauces, etc.), dairy products, eggs (mainly cheese), pre- pared grain products (including bakery confectionery, malt extracts and flour products), cocoa products (mainly chocolate), which together accounted for exactly 60%.
It is noteworthy that, in contrast to the general structure of our agricultural imports, the main supplies from the European Union do not include fruits and berries, along with fish and crustaceans, but are instead supplemented by dairy and grain processing.
Ukraine is not among the largest food importers in the world, in particular, before the full-scale war, in 2021, being in 49th place in this ranking.
However, for some items, Ukraine is still among the top 25 buyers in terms of quantitative volumes, namely in the segments of citrus fruits, bananas, tomatoes, cucumbers, frozen fish, tobacco-containing products for electric heating, and spirits.
It is necessary to pay attention to the characteristic features of agricultural imports to Ukraine. It has demonstrated a generally high unpredictability, which is only get- ting stronger over time. In 2014–2015, its value decreased by more than 2 times after the peak in 2013, while the de- cline in exports was not as significant. During the height of the coronavirus pandemic and related international trade restrictions in 2020, our exports of agricultural products and food essentially stopped growing, while sectoral imports continued to grow. Having adapted to these new conditions, imports grew significantly in sync with exports the following year. The absolute consequence of force majeure in the form of a complete blockade of seaports and a temporary collapse of the entire logistics system was a drop in incoming and outgoing food trade flows in 2022. Another difference between imports and exports was in 2023 in the form of a rapid increase in imports amid a slowdown in the on-going decline in agricultural exports.
It is absolutely clear that the global economy and Ukraine as an integral part of it are facing systemic organisational imbalances, including one of the most significant problems caused by massive population migration due to on-going military operations. When there are large-scale military confrontations involving key players in the global food market, as in Ukraine, agribusinesses are generally forced to adapt, but global food security becomes vulnerable, primarily reflected in rising food prices. As the social and political circumstances in Europe are still too unstable to affect the economic environment, the on-going transition period for Ukraine is likely to drag on for a longer time.
Given the commodity mix of Ukraine’s purchases of agri-food products from abroad and the conditions of their implementation, four typical types of imports can be distinguished:
1. Critical — products that, for objective reasons, cannot be produced due to the lack of traditions, experience, natural and climatic conditions for their cultivation, growing, and the inability to satisfy even a small share of the domestic market needs (sea fish, various types of crustaceans, molluscs; exotic fruits of tropical and sub- tropical latitudes, for example, according to official statistics, more than 62 thousand tonnes of oranges in 2023, as well as tangerines, lemons, kiwi, persimmons; coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and palm oil). A characteristic feature of this type of imports is their urgent need for the domestic food market, as the demand for them is stable and established, so there is a real need for their constant purchases.
2. Market-driven — products that have historically been produced in Ukraine and were quite well-developed, but over time have suffered a decline, reorientation and lost their positions in the domestic market (breeding animals; seed- lings of fruit and berry crops; certain types of meat and offal, including more than 24 thousand tonnes of lard and fat in 2023; oilseeds and grains). This includes all goods without which the normal functioning of the food market is impossible, so their supply must be ensured.
3. Point — represented by analogue goods that are produced in the country, sometimes in sufficient quantities to meet demand throughout the calendar year, but are regularly imported due to better consumer quality, price advantages, and seasonal demand (fruits and vegetables typical of Ukraine’s natural and climatic conditions, various cheeses — about 34 thousand tonnes in 2023). The peculiarity of this group is that it does not have a critical impact on food security, and supplies from abroad are almost always a response to the special needs of a certain circle of consumers who are willing to pay higher costs for a particular product, including those imported from another country.
4. Unpredictable — any agri-food product from the rest of the product groups for which there is a sudden rush or unexpected shortage (buckwheat, ginger, etc.). This type of imports appears spontaneously or may be absent for a long time, often characterized by even single cases. How- ever, its occurrence is almost never predicted in advance, so it is accompanied by a sharp increase in selling prices for goods that have to be imported on an emergency basis.
It is an objective fact that the consumption of most basic food groups by the population of Ukraine remains insufficient. The on-going full-scale war and the resulting decline in household incomes significantly worsen the availability of the food basket.
Agricultural imports to Ukraine continue to play an important role in terms of the adequacy of the assortment of the domestic food market.
Source National Scientific Center «Institute of Agrarian Economics». Materials used by the authors of which are Bogdan Dukhnytskyi (Doctor of Economic Sciences, Leading Researcher) and Volodymyr Pugachov (PhD in Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher)
Source European Commission
