Agro Perspectiva

Rising Global Grain Consumption Leading to Tighter Stocks

12.06.2026 08:16 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Global grain consumption in 2026/27 is forecast to grow modestly despite an overall decline in production. Corn, wheat, and rice are all forecast to have smaller global production, down a combined 57 million tons or 2 percent. However, a drawdown in stocks is expected to support consumption.

Corn feed and residual use is forecast to rise a little over 1 percent to 833 million tons. China, India, and Vietnam are forecast to have the largest year-to-year increases. India corn production is forecast to grow by more than half from 5 years ago, in part to support domestic ethanol targets, but also to help satisfy demand for poultry feed. Vietnam is forecast to experience the most yearto-year import growth as it continues to bolster animal feed supplies. In the United States, feed and residual use is expected to decline slightly, in line with lower anticipated production and higher expected prices.

The increase in corn feed and residual use is expected to be partially offset by lower wheat feed and residual use, which is forecast to decline by almost 4 percent from the prior year. Lower production across all major exporters will result in cuts for feed and residual use in the European Union, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and Australia as well as China.

Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use across the major grains is forecast to grow in 2026/27. Both rice and wheat are primarily used for human consumption. Rice consumption is expected to rise, with abundant supplies in India the key driver spurring additional use. Within India, more abundant supplies for rice compared to wheat will favor its use in public food security programs for a growing population. Globally, India’s ample exportable supplies continue to secure its place as the leading rice exporter with competitive prices. Outside South Asia, another fast-growing region for rice consumption is Sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth and a shift from traditional staples towards affordable rice are driving demand.

For wheat, consumption is expected to continue to rise, as population growth in South Asia, especially India, buoys demand. In contrast to declining rice use in East and Southeast Asia, wheat consumption is set to expand in those regions. Similar to rice, Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the largest growth in FSI consumption outside of South Asia. The Middle East and North Africa also remain large wheat consuming regions with larger crops across many countries expected to drive up consumption.

While some corn is used for food in regions such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, a significant and growing portion of corn FSI use is for industrial purposes, including biofuels. FSI use is expected to about double from 5 years ago in both Brazil and India, largely spurred by expanding use of corn as a feedstock for industrial ethanol production.

Global consumption will expand across the major grains for feed, food, and as a feedstock for biofuels in 2026/27, despite declining production. Notably, large carryin stocks help to supplement supplies as the year begins, but strong demand is expected to lead global stocks to decline for wheat (-2 percent), rice (-2 percent), and corn (-7 percent).

Source USDA