Agro Perspectiva

Global cereal output to decline in 2026 as trade diverges across cereals while stocks remain comfortable

08.06.2026 20:06 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — As the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing season concludes, global cereal production for 2025 is estimated at 3 043 million tonnes, representing an increase of 6.1 percent compared to the 2024 output. This growth is attributed to a sharp rise in the production of all major cereals, particularly maize. At 2 952 million tonnes, world cereal utilization in 2025/26 is estimated 2.7 percent above its 2024/25 level, reflecting growth in utilization of coarse grains (mostly maize) and rice. Notwithstanding the increase in utilization, cereal stocks at the end of seasons in 2025 are estimated at 9.5 percent above their opening levels, at 952.2 million tonnes. The expansion in cereal stocks stems mainly from larger inventories of wheat, maize and rice. Pegged at 508.6 million tonnes, FAO’s estimate for global cereal trade in 2025/26 points to a 4.8 percent increase from the 2024/25 level. This rise is driven by a sharp uptick in global trade of wheat and all major coarse grains. By contrast, global trade of rice in 2025/26 is estimated below its 2024/25 level.

Looking forward to the 2026/27 season, world cereal production (including rice in milled equivalent) is expected to decline by 2.0 percent year on year to 2 982 million tonnes. Production of all major cereals is anticipated to decline, albeit for many from record levels reached in 2025, with the largest year-on-year decrease (in percentage terms) forecast for wheat and the smallest for maize and barley.

World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent in 2026/27, reaching 2 969 million tonnes. Global food consumption of cereals is predicted to grow by 1.0 percent from 2025/26, while feed use is forecast to expand by 0.5 percent, with increases expected for maize and barley, while feed use of wheat and rice is likely to decline. Other uses of cereals are projected to ease marginally by 0.2 percent, led by decreased uses of wheat and barley.

World cereal stocks are predicted to contract by 0.3 percent below their opening levels to 949.0 million tonnes. The bulk of the anticipated decrease is due to lower inventories expected for rice and sorghum, offsetting a rebuild in stocks of wheat and barley. Based on the current forecasts, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio should remain close to the 2025/26 level, at 31.7 percent.

After expanding by 4.8 percent in 2025/26, global cereal trade is predicted to fall marginally in 2026/27, declining by 0.3 percent to 507.2 million tonnes, mostly on account of lower barley and wheat trade. By contrast, international trade in maize and rice is predicted to expand by 3.9 and 1.4 percent, respectively.