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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Global oilseed meal trade is forecast up 6 percent to an all-time high of 119 million tons in 2026/2027

19.05.2026 06:39 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (May 2026), global oilseed production in 2026/27 is forecast at a record 718 million metric tons, up 3 percent compared to the 2025/26 marketing year as strong demand for vegetable oil incentivizes greater planting.

Production of soybeans, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed are all expected to reach new highs.

Area expansion in the world’s largest soybean producing countries is the largest contributor to oilseed production growth.

Global soybean production is forecast to rise by 14 million tons to 442 million. U.S. production, expected to reach nearly 121 million tons, accounts for 5 million of this increase.

A 186-million-ton Brazil crop adds 6 million, while a 50-million-ton crop for Argentina adds an additional 2 million to global soybean production over 2025/26.

Global sunflowerseed production is forecast at an all-time high of 62 million tons, up 7 million, on improved yields in the Black Sea region and area growth in all major producing countries.

Russia (19 million tons) and Argentina (8 million tons) are expected to set new production highs, while production in Ukraine (14 million tons) is expected to recover by 23 percent after a decade’s low crop in 2025/26.

Global rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 97 million tons, up 1 million, on increased area in many major producing countries. India (12 million tons) and Russia (6 million) rapeseed production are expected to reach new records on continued area growth, while European Union production is anticipated to hit a 10-year high of 21 million tons.

Canada rapeseed production is forecast unchanged at 22 million, with area growth offset by a reduction from strong yields in 2025/26.

Global oilseed crushing is forecast to rise by 4 percent in 2026/27 to a record 607 million tons as higher production enables higher crushing of soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed.

The largest growth is for Brazil soybeans — up 4 million tons to 65 million — and the United States — up 3 million tons to 75 million — as Brazil increases crushing capacity to utilize ever larger crops, and the United States crushes to meet growing domestic biofuel demand.

Global Oilseed Production and Consumption Soybean Rapeseed Sunflowerseed Other Consumption to meet growing feed demand, while Ukraine, European Union, and Russia sunflowerseed crushing are each up 2 million tons due to production growth. Global oilseed trade is forecast to grow by 1 percent to a record 217 million in 2026/27.

Soybean exports are up 1 percent to 189 million, driven by soybean exports from the United States and Brazil.

Both are up 3 million tons from 2025/26 and are partly offset by a combined 3-million-ton decline for Argentina and Paraguay.

Exports of sunflowerseed are up 3 percent to 4 million tons, though most growth for exports is in meal and oil rather than seed. Exports of rapeseed are up 2 percent to 19 million tons on gains for Canada and Ukraine despite a reduction for Australia.

Global oilseed stocks are forecast up slightly to a record 147 million tons in 2026/27, largely due to supply recovery for sunflowerseed. Robust global oilseed consumption is expected to limit stocks growth.

Global soybean stocks are flat at 125 million tons.

Global oilseed meal trade is forecast up 6 percent to an all-time high of 119 million tons in 2026/27.

The United States (20 million tons) and Brazil (27 million) are both expected to reach historically high soybean meal exports due to increased crushing, pushing total soybean meal exports up 5 percent to 88 million tons on competitive prices and robust demand for feed.

Sunflowerseed meal exports are expected to expand by 20 percent to 10 million tons on rebounding supplies in Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union.

Global oilseed meal consumption is forecast up 3 percent to a record 405 million tons in 2026/27 with growth expected in most countries to support growing demand for feed.

Global oilseed meal consumption on a soybean meal equivalent (SME) basis is also forecast up 3 percent.

The proportions of global oilseed meal consumption on an SME basis are unchanged at 79 percent soybean meal, 10 percent rapeseed meal, and 4 percent sunflowerseed meal. The largest consumption volume growth is expected for China, up 3 percent SME basis, on increased soybean and sunflowerseed meal Includes copra, cottonseed, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean, and sunflowerseed meals.

Global Market Analysis consumption. Brazil, Vietnam, the United States, the European Union, and India are also forecast to have significant gains in consumption. Global vegetable oil trade is forecast up 4 percent to a record 92 million tons, largely driven by sunflowerseed oil export growth for Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey.

Total sunflowerseed oil exports are expected to rise 16 percent to 16 million tons, while rapeseed oil exports are expected to grow 8 percent to 9 million, and soybean oil exports are expected to grow 2 percent to 14 million tons. Palm oil exports are unchanged at 46 million tons.

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