Grain Consumption to Grow Despite Declining Production
18.05.2026 14:22 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Global corn production in 2026/27 is forecast down as larger crops in Brazil and China only partially offset declines for the United States and Argentina after prior-year records. Global trade is forecast down modestly on lower exports from Argentina and the United States. Both feed and residual and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) consumption are expected to grow, but more modestly than last year. As consumption exceeds production, global ending stocks are forecast down, driven primarily by lower stocks in China and the United States. Wheat Market Outlook The global wheat outlook is for declining production after a record 2025/26. Production is projected lower with reductions for most major exporters but increases for many importers. With reduced supplies in exporting countries, but ample supplies across North Africa and the Middle East, global trade is forecast to decline. FSI use continues to grow, especially in India and Bangladesh, but is nearly balanced against reduced feed and residual use, particularly in China, the EU, and Kazakhstan. Ending stocks are forecast to decline, with reductions for the United States, the European Union, China, and Australia, tempered by growing stocks in India. Rice Market Outlook Global rice production is forecast down with smaller crops in India, Burma, and the United States. Global consumption is expected to rise slightly to a new record with growth in India and across Sub-Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast to rise on growing demand from Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Large supplies in India will enable exports to expand to a new record, accounting for nearly 40 percent of global trade. Exports are expected to rise for Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, and Cambodia, and decline for Burma and the United States. Global stocks are forecast down slightly, primarily on a drawdown in India. Production and Consumption Indicators Rice Rice consumption growth moderates as production declines. Corn Corn production declines but consumption remains robust. Wheat Wheat production contracts while consumption remains nearly flat. Cross-Commodity Outlooks for Major Countries United States U.S. grain production in 2026/27 is expected to decline as area shifts toward more soybean production given better expected returns and higher fertilizer costs. - Corn production down 26.1 million tons
- Wheat production down 11.5 million tons
- Sorghum production down 1.8 million tons
- Rice production down 1.0 million tons
Even with flat-to-declining consumption, stocks are expected to tighten but remain robust relative to recent history. U.S. exports are projected to edge lower across most grains due to competition from other major suppliers and weaker import demand. China China grain production in 2026/27 is forecast at a record 604.0 million tons, about 1 percent higher than a year ago. More than half of total production is expected to come from a record 307.0-million-ton corn crop. China remains the world’s top wheat producer and the second-largest producer of corn and rice. Strong poultry production and stable swine-sector demand are expected to support a 4.0-million-ton increase in corn consumption. Corn imports are forecast at 6.0 million tons, roughly unchanged from the revised 2025/26 outlook but below volumes seen in previous years. Wheat and rice imports are expected to remain below tariff-rate quotas: - Wheat quota: 9.6 million tons
- Rice quota: 5.3 million tons
Barley and sorghum imports are not subject to tariff-rate quotas. - Barley imports forecast at 10.5 million tons
- Sorghum imports forecast at 7.5 million tons
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