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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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HIGHLIGHTS: EU exports remained stable in the first half of 2025, while import prices increased

28.09.2025 15:31 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — EU exports reached EUR 19.1 billion in June 2025, a reduction of 4% on the previous month but still 2% higher than in June 2024. Over the first semester of 2025, cumulative EU exports reached EUR 118.7 billion, this is 2% higher than in the same period in 2024. Prices for exports of cocoa-based products remained high, while exports of cereals declined.

EU imports decreased by 10% month-on-month in June, reaching EUR 15.3 billion. However, they remain 15% higher than in June 2024. In the first half of the year, cumulative imports reached EUR 96.8 billion, up 16% compared to the same period in 2024. This is explained by high import prices, in particular for cocoa and coffee, as well as fruit and nuts. Imports from Côte d’Ivoire and Canada had the largest increase.

The EU agri-food trade surplus rebounded by 32% in June compared to the previous month and reached EUR 3.8 billion. It remains however 30% lower than in June 2024. In the first half of 2025, the EU surplus reached EUR 21.9 billion. This is a reduction of EUR 10.9 billion compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to increases in the prices of EU imports.

EU agri-food exports reached EUR 19.1 billion in June 2025, a reduction of 4% on the previous month, but still 2% higher than in June 2024. In the first six months of the year, cumulative EU exports reached EUR 118.7 billion, an increase of 2% (+ EUR 2.6 billion) compared to the same period in 2024, mainly due to higher prices.

HIGHER EXPORTS TO THE UK, LOWER TO CHINA

Exports to the UK had the largest increase in value in the first half of the year compared to 2024 and reached EUR 27.6 billion. This is an increase of EUR 1.2 billion (+5%), explained in part by higher prices of cocoa products and chocolate.

Exports to the US followed with an increase of EUR 742 million (+5%) in the first semester of 2025 compared to 2024. This increase was concentrated on the first three months of the year, but exports came back to a level similar to 2024 since April. The increase was partly explained by a rise in the value of cocoa-based products, as well as spirits, dairy and wine exports.

Exports to Switzerland grew by EUR 638 million (+10%), in part due to the high prices of cocoa products.

By contrast, exports to China decreased by EUR 670 million (-10%) in the first half of the year compared to 2024. This is explained by a strong reduction in cereal exports, mainly due to lower demand. Exports to Thailand also declined by

EUR 242 million, in part due to lower cereals exports.

HIGH PRICES FOR COCOA BASED EXPORTS, LOWER EXPORTS OF CEREALS

Exports in the coffee, tea, cocoa and spices category had the largest increase in value, rising by EUR 1.8 billion (+38%) between January and June compared to 2024. This was mainly driven by a nearly twofold price increase for exports of cocoa paste, butter and powder, as well as a 30% increase in coffee export prices.

Exports of confectionery and chocolate also increased by EUR 1 billion (+20%), mainly due to the high prices of chocolate exports (+31%).

Exports of dairy products increased by EUR 635 million (+7%), primarily due to higher prices, while volumes declined by 2%.

By contrast, EU cereals exports decreased by EUR 1.5 billion (-22%) in January-June 2025 compared to 2024. This is mainly explained by lower export volumes (-27%, -6.7 million t, mainly in wheat), while prices increased by 6%.

Exports of olives and olive oil increased by 18% in volume, but this was offset by a 27% reduction in prices compared to the 2024 peak. This led to an overall decrease in value of EUR 572 million (-15%), however, they remain above 2023 levels.

Exports of non-edible products for technical use also declined by EUR 313 million (-12%), mainly due to lower export prices, in particular for plant fibres.

EU AGRI-FOOD IMPORTS

The value of EU agri-food imports reached EUR 15.3 billion in June 2025. This is 10% lower than the previous month, but still 15% higher than in June 2024. Over the first half of 2025, cumulative EU imports reached EUR 96.8 billion. This is an increase of EUR 13.5 billion (+16%) compared to 2024, mainly explained by high prices for several EU imports, particularly cocoa and coffee.

IMPORTS FROM CÔTE D’IVOIRE AND CANADA INCREASED THE MOST

Imports from Côte d’Ivoire had the largest increase in value in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 (+ EUR 2 billion, +66%), mainly due to a large increase in cocoa prices.

Imports from Canada followed as they doubled in value, with an increase of EUR 1.2 billion (+101%), mainly due to large increases in rapeseed, maize and wheat imports.

Imports from the US also increased by EUR 1.1 million (+19%) compared to 2024, mainly due to higher maize imports and higher prices for nuts imports, while the value of soya imports declined.

Imports from China increased by EUR 946 million (+22%), due to increases across most product categories, notably non-edible products (including fatty acids and waxes). Imports from Brazil increased by EUR 838 million (+10%), mainly due to higher coffee prices, while the price of oilseeds and protein crops declined.

By contrast, imports from Ukraine decreased by EUR 891 million (-13%), mainly due to lower imports of cereals and rapeseed. Imports from Russia decreased by 73% (- EUR 566 million), mainly due to a fall in imports of oilseeds, margarine and other oils and fats, and cereals.

COFFEE AND COCOA PRICES DRIVE THE INCREASE IN EU IMPORTS

Imports of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices increased by EUR 8.1 billion (+60%) in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024. This is mainly explained by higher import prices: cocoa prices doubled and coffee prices rose by 62%.

Imports of fruit and nuts followed with an increase of EUR 2.3 billion (+18%), mainly due to higher prices (+12%).

Among other increases, imports of non-edible products increased by EUR 492 million (+10%), mainly due to higher prices. Imports of confectionery and chocolate increased by EUR 433 million (+36%, mainly due to higher prices). Imports of poultry and eggs increased by EUR 356 million (+30%, due to both higher prices and volumes).

By contrast, imports of olives and olive oil decreased by EUR 466 million (-44%), due to both lower import prices and volumes.

Imports of sugar and isoglucose decreased by EUR 332 million (-32%), mainly due to reduced volumes (-25%).

Source: European Commission

Agro Perspectiva

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