U.S. Corn Exports Forecast at Back-to-Back Records
13.09.2025 10:30 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (September 2025), in 2024/25 (Oct-Sep), U.S. corn exports are estimated to hit a record of 71.7 million tons, eclipsing the previous high of 68.3 million tons in 2020/21. Exportable supplies were plentiful this year, with the fifth-largest production ever bolstered by the largest beginning stocks in 5 years. As a result, U.S. corn was price competitive throughout most of the year. In the earlier part of the season, a smaller crop resulted in lower exports and reduced competition from Ukraine. Following that, Brazil’s safrinha (second crop) exports, which typically begin in July, are off to a slow start in 2025 despite the second highest crop, offering late season breathing room for U.S. corn exports. Key export destinations in 2024/25 include Mexico, Japan, Colombia, and South Korea, representing over 70 percent of year-to-date U.S. export volume (Oct-Jul). However, growth in both smaller markets and countries where the United States has a smaller market share have contributed to corn’s export performance as well. Export volumes to Guatemala, Vietnam, and the European Union are at the highest level in at least 5 years, if not outright new records. U.S. corn production in 2025/26 is forecast at an unprecedented 427 million tons, and the bountiful supply situation supports a forecast for a consecutive record of 75.0 million tons of exports in the upcoming year, up 2.5 million from the August forecast. Per Export Sales Reporting as of the beginning of September, sales already on the books for the new marketing year are at the second highest level ever despite the absence of China demand. Though exports from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine are expected to grow modestly year over year — from either larger crops or moderating of domestic demand growth — the United States is poised to remain by far the world’s largest corn exporter. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).
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