World milk production is forecast to reach 992.7 million tonnes in 2025
28.06.2025 21:01 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
World milk production is forecast to reach 992.7 million tonnes in 2025, rising by 1.0 percent year on year and marking a second consecutive year of modest growth. Increases in Asia are expected to drive the global growth, driven by continued herd expansion and gradual productivity gains in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. These advances are anticipated to more than offset a projected decline in China, where falling farm-gate prices and sustained cost pressures continue to constrain output growth. Expectations of strong increases in Brazil and Mexico, alongside a recovery in Argentina and the United States of America, are set to underpin a broader rebound in the Americas. Milk outputs in Europe and Oceania are expected to remain stable, with modest increases amid diverging national trends. By contrast, a slight decline is anticipated in Africa, where rising input costs and conflict-related disruptions in some parts of the continent will likely hinder production. Global dairy trade, measured in milk equivalent, is predicted to decline by 0.8 percent in 2025. An expected rebound in imports by China — driven by rising demand from the food industry and a lower production outlook — may only partially offset anticipated declines across Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Near East amid improved regional production. Lower exports from the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the United States are expected to be partially balanced by anticipated increased shipments from, the Islamic Republic of Iran, New Zealand and Uruguay. Ongoing uncertainty in the trade policy environment warrants close monitoring in the months ahead to assess impacts on global markets and trade dynamics. International dairy prices continued to rise in early 2025, led by record-high butter prices and firm cheese quotations. In May, the FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 153.5 points, up 21.5 percent year on year but still 3.0 percent below its all-time high reached in June 2022. Prices of butter and cheese led the increases, supported by strong demand and tight supplies in Oceania and the European Union. Whole milk powder prices also rose markedly, fueled by steady demand from the Near East and North Africa Region. By contrast, skim milk powder prices experienced mild downward pressure, due to abundant supplies in Europe and slower demand growth in Asia. Source: FAO
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