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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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FAO Food Price Index rises in April on higher cereal, dairy and meat prices

02.05.2025 14:35 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points (1.0 percent) from March. Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils. Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6 percent) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9 percent) below its peak reached in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 111.0 points in April, up 1.3 points (1.2 percent) from March but still 0.6 points (0.5 percent) below its year-earlier level. The monthly increase reflected higher prices across all major cereals. Global wheat prices rose marginally, supported by tightening exportable supplies in the Russian Federation, steady export pace from some major exporters, and currency movements linked to a weaker United States dollar, particularly against the euro. However, trade policy developments and macroeconomic uncertainty limited the rise. International maize prices also increased, largely due to seasonally tighter stock levels in the United States of America and currency movements. Adjustments to the United States’ import tariff policies — including the exemption of Mexico, the leading importer of US maize, and a 90-day pause on import tariffs above 10 percent for several other trading partners — further contributed to the upward price pressure. Among other coarse grains, world prices of sorghum and barley also increased. Meanwhile, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 0.8 percent in April, as demand for fragrant varieties strengthened and the arrival of freshly harvested supplies diminished in Viet Nam, as the country’s main crop harvest entered its final stage.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 158.0 points in April, down 3.7 points (2.3 percent) from March but remaining 20.7 percent above its level a year ago. The decline was mainly driven by lower palm oil prices, which more than offset higher soy and rapeseed oil quotations, while global sunflower oil prices remained largely stable. After two months of increases, international palm oil prices fell markedly in April, largely underpinned by a gradual recovery in global export supplies due to seasonally higher outputs in major Southeast Asian producing countries. By contrast, world soy and rapeseed oil prices continued to rise, broadly reflecting, respectively, persistently firm global import demand and tightening supplies as the 2024/25 season nears its end. International sunflower oil prices, meanwhile, fluctuated within a narrow range during April but remained well above their year-earlier levels, amid shrinking supplies out of the Black Sea region.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 121.6 points in April, up 3.7 points (3.2 percent) from March and 5.0 points (4.3 percent) higher than its value a year earlier. International meat quotations rose across all categories, with pig meat prices registering the most significant increase. The rise was underpinned by higher quotations in the European Union due to stronger global import demand, following the reinstatement of Germany’s foot-and-mouth disease-free status and the lifting of related restrictions by importers, further bolstered by increased seasonal demand associated with Easter holidays. Bovine meat prices also firmed, particularly in Australia and Brazil, amid steady import demand and limited global availabilities. Ovine meat prices surged as well, reflecting strong buying interest from key markets. Meanwhile, poultry meat prices rose moderately, especially in Brazil, where robust external demand and festivity-related processing slowdowns tightened exportable supplies and added upward pressure on prices.

The FAO Dairy Price Index stood at 152.1 points in April, averaging 3.5 points (2.4 percent) up from March and as much as 28.4 points (22.9 percent) higher than a year ago. International butter prices rose for the third consecutive month to a new all-time high, with a 2.9 percent increase from March. The surge was largely driven by higher European prices supported by reduced inventories and strong milkfat demand, despite seasonally higher milk production. International prices of milk powders (SMP and WMP) also rose, by 1.6 and 2.9 percent respectively, underpinned by steady domestic demand and a shift in export interest from Europe — where a stronger euro reduced competitiveness — towards Oceania, where seasonally declining milk production tightened spot availability. Meanwhile, international prices of cheese increased by 2.3 percent from March, driven by strong export demand amid tightening supplies in Oceania.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 112.8 points in April, down 4.1 points (3.5 percent) from March, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, and standing 13.8 points (10.9 percent) below its level in April 2024. The drop in world sugar prices was largely driven by concerns over the uncertain global economic outlook and its potential impact on demand from the beverage and food processing sectors, which account for the bulk of global sugar consumption. Larger-than-expected sugar output in Brazil in the second half of March added further downward pressure. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar and lower international crude oil prices contributed to the decline in world sugar prices.

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