Global Grain Trade Declines in 2024/25
11.04.2025 05:19 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (April 2025), total grain trade is forecast to fall by 7 percent in 2024/25 compared to the prior year, with declines for wheat, rice, and corn (as well as other coarse grains). While this contraction is a trend across grains, the factors contributing to the decline vary across commodities, with both supply and demand reasons unique to each. Increased production in several key wheat-importing countries including China and Pakistan reduced their import demand, while high beginning stocks prompted the government in Turkey to implement import restrictions. In contrast, harvests were smaller for top exporters such as Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine. As a result, wheat trade is forecast to decline by 9 percent compared to the prior year, the largest year-to-year decline in decades. Despite reduced import demand from key importing countries, global wheat prices have remained relatively stable over the past year. For corn, global production is down, with the largest decline for the United States, the top exporter. Among other major exporters, Ukraine has a sharply smaller crop, and Argentina is forecast modestly lower, while Brazil contends with more domestic demand despite higher production year over year. In contrast, production is up in China, which was the second largest importer in 2023/24. Weaker demand has brought China’s imports for both corn and sorghum sharply lower, down 65 and 46 percent respectively, providing the largest year-to-year decline in imports. Overall corn trade is down 5 percent from the prior year. For rice, global production is up with the largest gain for India, which recently removed all of its export restrictions. India’s exports are expected to rebound, particularly on gains to Bangladesh and Sub-Saharan Africa (see rice section for further details). Higher India exports will be more than offset by declines for other exporters. Indonesia is expected to scale back buying from the global market given its larger domestic production. The rice trade declines are modest compared to the other grains.
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