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New Zealand. The milk production forecast for 2020 is slightly lowered
23.07.2020 14:50 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Dairy: World Markets and Trade (July 2020), monthly milk production in New Zealand through May 2020 is marginally ahead of last year’s pace over the same period as drought conditions early in the year in the North Island reduced pasture growth and milk output. However, conditions have improved and the latest update from the New Zealand National Institute for Weather and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) does not indicate any current drought. For the JulySeptember period, the NIWA forecast calls for an equal chance of near normal or above normal rainfall in the east of North Island and near normal rainfall for all other regions except in the west of South Island where there is a greater probability of below normal precipitation. Despite the positive precipitation outlook, milk prices remain uncertain due to the global disruption of COVID-19. In the most recent (July 2020) price outlook released by Fonterra, the farmgate milk price for 2019/2020 (June/May) season is estimated at a mid-point price of NZ$7.15 per kilogram of milk solids (US$2.15 per pound). For the next season this price is anticipated to fall to a level between NZ$5.40-$6.90 per kilogram of milk solids. Since that estimate, however, global product prices have strengthenedwhich will likely lead to an upward revision in the milk price forecast Although there is some optimism regarding rainfall conditions and prices, lower cow numbers are expected and the condition of the herd going into the peak spring production period is likely to be less than ideal. In addition, pasture conditions are still recovering from the drought particularly as soil moisture has not been fully replenished. Consequently, the milk production forecast for 2020 is slightly lowered by about 50,000 tons but remains at about 21.9 million tons, fractionally above 2019
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